Does the Price of Methyl Methacrylate (MMA) Fluctuate Significantly?

In recent years, MMA prices have frequently experienced sharp short-term swings. Almost every year, there have been cases where prices moved by as much as USD 100 in a single day and by as much as USD 200 in a single week.

1. First, let us review how MMA prices in the Chinese market fluctuated from 2022 to 2026:

It is clear that the fluctuation range has been quite large almost every year. Let us take a closer look at the price trends over the most recent three years, 2024 to 2026.

1.1 In 2024: high-level fluctuation driven by exports

The MMA market performed strongly in 2024. The average annual price (excluding tax) in eastern China was about CNY 12,800/mt, up about 28.7% year on year. The intra-year high occurred in April–May, when prices reached CNY 14,600/mt at some points, setting a six-year high.

Three core factors underpinned that year's high prices:

Contraction of overseas supply: In 2024, Mitsubishi Chemical's ACH plant in Hiroshima, Japan, was shut down, Sumitomo Chemical in Singapore cut output substantially, and multiple plants in Southeast Asia and Europe underwent maintenance, markedly reducing international spot supply.

Sharp growth in exports: Domestic MMA exports reached about 350,000 mt, up about 148% year on year, a five-year high, making exports an important increment driving demand.

Constrained plant operating rates: In H1, domestic MMA plant operating rates were relatively low, the supply of by-product hydrogen cyanide from acrylonitrile was limited, spot supply was tight, and prices were pushed up.

However, as new domestic capacity was gradually commissioned in H2, supply and demand became progressively looser, and prices retreated from their highs, showing a pattern of "high first, then low".

1.2 By 2025: a deep pullback after capacity release

The MMA market weakened notably in 2025. The annual average price was about CNY 9,100/mt, down about 25.3% from 2024. In H1, prices had already fallen below CNY 9,000; in July, the reference quote in the East China market was only CNY 8,400/mt. In Q4 prices fell further, with prices in eastern China and Shandong Province dropping below CNY 8,000/mt, refreshing the lows of the past five years.

The main reasons for the decline were:

Concentrated capacity release: Domestic MMA capacity expanded from about 1 million mt in 2018 to more than 2.8 million mt in 2025, with new capacity ramping up continuously and significantly increasing supply pressure.

Insufficient demand absorption: Demand in downstream areas such as PMMA and coatings was weak, end-user purchasing was mainly for essential needs, and high prices were difficult to pass through.

Weakening export support: Export volumes failed to sustain the high growth of 2024, and their supporting effect on prices declined markedly.

Collapse on the cost side: The price of the main feedstock acetone also weakened, providing insufficient cost support.

Widening profitability divergence: Profits under the ACH process shrank sharply, while the C4 process once incurred losses of about CNY 2,000/mt; the differing profit-and-loss positions across process routes further disrupted the supply rhythm.

1.3 2026: continued sharp fluctuations under the dual influence of costs and demand

In H1 2026, prices in the Chinese market broke through CNY 8,000/mt in February and at one point exceeded CNY 13,300/mt; they fell back below CNY 9,000/mt again in early July, returned above CNY 11,800/mt in September driven by costs, and then, after October, retreated and rebounded due to insufficient downstream absorption.

Panic on the demand side: After war broke out in the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, crude oil faced a large supply shortfall, which triggered panic in the market and kept product prices climbing.

Cost impact: The price of the main feedstock acetone rose, fell, and then rose again, tracking crude oil prices.

Export-driven demand: In H1, feedstock shortages in the international market caused by the crude oil shortfall led to a sharp increase in export demand, pushing prices up by more than cost fluctuations would suggest. Later, in July, when crude oil supply became ample, exports were nearly interrupted, causing Chinese market prices to fall sharply.

2. Let us examine several factors that influence MMA prices

2.1 Feedstock cost

The main feedstocks for MMA include acetone, methanol, MTBE, isobutylene, propylene, and others, and these feedstocks are in turn closely linked to the prices of commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, propylene, and pure benzene.

When crude oil, geopolitical conflicts, or overseas plants are disrupted, the prices of feedstocks such as acetone and methanol can rise quickly, pushing up MMA production costs. In March and September 2026, acetone, methanol, and other feedstocks surged sharply, markedly increasing the cost pressure on MMA producers and causing market prices to follow quickly. These products cannot hold prices steady the way end-use consumer goods can; they sit in the middle of the value chain, and with mature futures markets, any upstream disturbance tends to quickly affect both spot and futures prices.

2.2 Production-side impact: plant maintenance and unplanned shutdowns

China's MMA plants are all very large in scale. Once any one MMA plant shuts down for maintenance, runs at reduced rates due to a fault, or experiences problems with its feedstock supporting units, MMA supply drops sharply and a large gap emerges.

In Q3 2026, output at multiple Chinese MMA plants declined due to maintenance at upstream feedstock plants, the market was in a destocking state, and prices were therefore supported. Around September, some companies delayed the restart of their plants, contract deliveries slowed, spot supply was tight, and these factors also pushed prices up. During this price move, huge gains of more than USD 100/day and USD 200/week appeared.

Such supply changes do not occur gradually but are concentrated within a short period, so prices are prone to sudden pulse-like surges.

2.3 Constraints on downstream price acceptance

MMA prices cannot be smoothly passed through to downstream customers. Its largest downstream application is PMMA, and it also involves acrylic sheets, coating emulsions, plastic additives, and other areas. When MMA prices rise quickly, downstream producers' costs increase, but end-product prices are difficult to adjust in step.

If downstream profits are squeezed or even turn into losses, purchasing shifts from "restocking" to "essential-need orders", and high-price transactions quickly decrease. From September to October 2026, after MMA prices stayed at high levels, downstream buyers became increasingly resistant to expensive feedstock, spot purchasing sentiment weakened, and the market subsequently stalled and retreated. In other words, costs can push prices up, but whether demand can absorb them determines how long high prices can be sustained.

2.4 Capacity expansion has changed long-term price support

Over the past few years, Chinese MMA capacity has continued to expand. In H1 2026, domestic MMA capacity had reached about 2.92 million mt, with multiple process routes coexisting, including the ACH, C4, and C2 processes. The increase in capacity has reduced the strength of price support.

In 2025, MMA prices moved lower overall, and the average price in the Chinese market fell markedly from 2024, reflecting prominent supply-demand contradictions. Capacity expansion makes it harder for MMA to sustain high prices over the long term, but within short cycles, prices can still rebound noticeably due to maintenance, rising costs, and changes in exports. The market therefore shows the characteristic of "downward pressure on prices in the long run, while short-term fluctuations remain violent".

2.5 Different process routes use different feedstocks, causing feedstock costs to move out of sync and prices to fluctuate repeatedly

Different process routes have different break-even points, making MMA prices more prone to repeated tug-of-war near the cost line. The main process routes for domestic MMA include the acetone cyanohydrin process (ACH) and the C4 process. In H1 2026, the average profit of ACH plants was still acceptable, but profits fell rapidly after July; the C4 process even incurred losses at some points.

When a certain process route falls into losses, producers may reduce operating rates or shut down, and the reduced supply supports prices; when feedstock prices retreat and profits recover, plants may restart, and the increased supply then suppresses prices.

2.6 International market influences: geopolitics and export changes

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, crude oil fluctuations, and changes in the arrival rhythm of cargoes all affect the supply and cost of feedstocks such as acetone and methanol. Meanwhile, changes in export orders also affect the domestic supply-demand balance. If exports weaken, domestic supply pressure rises; if export demand picks up, it pushes prices higher.

Summary

MMA prices are characterized by "rising fast and falling fast". They are not driven by any single factor but are the result of the combined effects of costs, supply, demand, the capacity cycle, and geopolitical risks.

If you have any demand for MMA, please feel free to contact me at any time. My email is sprind.wan@gschemgroup.com, and my WhatsApp is +86 15378789376.

Note: All prices in this document are exclusive of tax. For the Chinese market, an additional 13% VAT applies.